Forex Strategy
The Risk Today
EurUsd defined support at 1.3260 following Monday's rebound and a break of this support is required to trigger a fresh round of weakness opening 1.3200 (61.8% retracement of the 1.3072-1.3412 rally). A break there would open the risk down toward 1.3180. On the upside, focus is on the 1.3411 minor resistance from last week, with a strong resistance at the 1.3480 March 11 high.
GbpUsd outlook remains positive and keeps market focus on resistance at the 1.9750. First 1.9675 initial resistance must be cleared to open the way for advance toward 1.9750. Except 1.9850, there is little resistance above there until the 1.9917 late January high. Supports remain at 1.9582 and 1.9571.
UsdJpy consolidation phase continues to hold below the 118.50 to 118.98 resistance band. Recent downward pressure from Monday's 118.44 high, penetrated mild support at 116.92 before bouncing off 116.37 Wednesday's low, but it will take a break of 115.76 to clear the way for a run at the 115.15 trend low from early March.
UsdChf has defined 1.2230 and 1.2076 as the key intraday directional triggers with lower key support at 1.2020 trend low. It will take a break down 1.2076 to get the underlying bear trend back for a run toward 1.2030; after that, there is little support till the 1.1881 early December low. On the topside, a break of 1.2230 would instead reinstate a short-term bullish theme.
GbpUsd outlook remains positive and keeps market focus on resistance at the 1.9750. First 1.9675 initial resistance must be cleared to open the way for advance toward 1.9750. Except 1.9850, there is little resistance above there until the 1.9917 late January high. Supports remain at 1.9582 and 1.9571.
UsdJpy consolidation phase continues to hold below the 118.50 to 118.98 resistance band. Recent downward pressure from Monday's 118.44 high, penetrated mild support at 116.92 before bouncing off 116.37 Wednesday's low, but it will take a break of 115.76 to clear the way for a run at the 115.15 trend low from early March.
UsdChf has defined 1.2230 and 1.2076 as the key intraday directional triggers with lower key support at 1.2020 trend low. It will take a break down 1.2076 to get the underlying bear trend back for a run toward 1.2030; after that, there is little support till the 1.1881 early December low. On the topside, a break of 1.2230 would instead reinstate a short-term bullish theme.
Resistance and Support
| EURUSD | GBPUSD | USDJPY | USDCHF | |
| 1.3666 T | 1.9850 P | 119.90 K | 1.2342 S | |
| 1.3480 S | 1.9750 S | 118.88 M | 1.2263 M | |
| 1.3343 M | 1.9675 T | 118.50 S | 1.2230 S | |
| 1.3320 | 1.9650 | 117.40 | 1.2170 | |
| 1.3260 S | 1.9582 M | 117.17 S | 1.2030 S | |
| 1.3200 S | 1.9188 S | 115.15 M | 1.1984 P | |
| 1.3180 S | 1.9146 P | 114.44 S | 1.1881 T | |
| S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot | ||||
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