Forex info today #6

Forex Strategy

The Risk Today

EurUsd defined support at 1.3260 following Monday's rebound and a break of this support is required to trigger a fresh round of weakness opening 1.3200 (61.8% retracement of the 1.3072-1.3412 rally). A break there would open the risk down toward 1.3180. On the upside, focus is on the 1.3411 minor resistance from last week, with a strong resistance at the 1.3480 March 11 high.

GbpUsd outlook remains positive and keeps market focus on resistance at the 1.9750. First 1.9675 initial resistance must be cleared to open the way for advance toward 1.9750. Except 1.9850, there is little resistance above there until the 1.9917 late January high. Supports remain at 1.9582 and 1.9571.

UsdJpy consolidation phase continues to hold below the 118.50 to 118.98 resistance band. Recent downward pressure from Monday's 118.44 high, penetrated mild support at 116.92 before bouncing off 116.37 Wednesday's low, but it will take a break of 115.76 to clear the way for a run at the 115.15 trend low from early March.

UsdChf has defined 1.2230 and 1.2076 as the key intraday directional triggers with lower key support at 1.2020 trend low. It will take a break down 1.2076 to get the underlying bear trend back for a run toward 1.2030; after that, there is little support till the 1.1881 early December low. On the topside, a break of 1.2230 would instead reinstate a short-term bullish theme.

Resistance and Support

EURUSD	GBPUSD	USDJPY	USDCHF
1.3666 T	1.9850 P	119.90 K	1.2342 S
1.3480 S	1.9750 S	118.88 M	1.2263 M
1.3343 M	1.9675 T	118.50 S	1.2230 S
1.3320	1.9650	117.40	1.2170
1.3260 S	1.9582 M	117.17 S	1.2030 S
1.3200 S	1.9188 S	115.15 M	1.1984 P
1.3180 S	1.9146 P	114.44 S	1.1881 T
S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot

Happy Trading

Forex info today #5

Forex Strategy

News and Events:

The Dollar fell against the Yen on Tuesday after a magazine reported that China would stop stockpiling Foreign Exchange reserves and slipped against other major currencies as investors remained wary of risky trades. But analysts said People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan might have been misquoted, since China $1 trillion reserves will keep growing as long as Central Bank buys Dollars to prevent the Yuan from strengthening. This practice will likely not be abandon very time soon. Zhou was quote by the Emerging Markets magazine as saying “many people say that foreign exchange reserves in China are (already) large enough. We do not intend to go further and accumulate reserves”. UsdJpy dipped to 116.93 low and ended traded at 117.26 -0.31%. EurJpy was down -0.29% to 156.13 after hitting 156.96 high. On the contrary, GbpJpy was up 1.41% to 228.91.

The Dollar was also hurt Tuesday by US housing market which was seen as slightly Dollar negative. Tough February Housing Starts rose 1525K in February, from 1399k. But it is hard to conclude that the market is stabilizing, because building permits were less volatile at 1121k vs 1220. Analysts said the housing starts increase may have distorted by weather issue.

The housing data came out as the Federal Open Market Committee began its two-day meeting that concludes Wednesday. Dealers are expecting the FOMC to announce after the meeting that it's keeping rates unchanged at 5.25%. Most awaited, the post-meeting statement would help traders believe it may include wording about housing market woes, which could push the Dollar down against the all majors. This would be a reversal from the FOMC's last statement when it noted prematurely “signs of stabilization” in the housing sector.

BoJ' expected rate decision with lighter equity market had encouraged investors to jump back into carry trades positions, helping to boost the Dollar and the Euro against the Japanese currency. Meanwhile, Sterling and Canadian Dollar rallied Tuesday following stronger-than-expected inflation report. GbpUsd went to an intraday high 1.9625, its highest level from early March. UsdCad end sharply lower, ending -1.37% at 1.1602, after an unexpectedly strong Canadian CPI at 0.7% monthly and 2% yearly.



The Risk Today:

EurUsd bull trend from 1.2865 remains intact with little resistance till the broader resistance 1.3370 set back in early December. Former 1.3290 resistance marks initial support before intraday support at around 1.3260. A break there would open the risk down toward 1.3180.

GbpUsd recent advance cleared 1.9500 and 1.9517 resistances. The outlook remains strong Sterling and the focus is now on the 1.9650 – 1.9675 area, where a break would confirm the return in a strong positive trend. Former resistance 1.9517 marks the initial support. On a reversal downtrend, there is little support till 1.9375 and 1.9188. After that, focus will be on the 1.9146 Pivot support from last November.

UsdJpy continues its choppy consolidation phase, but as long as the 118.50 to 118.88 range resistance holds, we will keep our focus on the downside. A break of 115.76 and the 115.55 would clear the way for a run at the 115.15 trend low from early March.

UsdChf remains under pressure after the break of former support at 1.2146 (61.8% retracement of 1.1881 – 1.2575 advance). A return below 1.2104 would expose the 1.1984. There's little support below there till the 1.1881 early December low. Next strong support is 1.1984. Initial resistance is 1.2217 last Thursday high.

FOREX INFO TODAY #4

Forex Strategy

Suggest for today :

GBP / USD POWER Bearish STRENGTH 30% START POWER 08-02-2007 POINT RUNNING +217 PRICE DIRECTION Long RESIST/SUPPORT 1.9590/1.9540 SUGGEST : Open Sell Range 1.9530-1.9520 Limit 1.9460 Stop 1.9550 Open Buy Range 1.9560-1.9570 Limit 1.9630 Stop 1.9540	EUR / USD POWER Bullish STRENGTH 60% START POWER 06-02-2007 POINT RUNNING +109 PRICE DIRECTION Long RESIST/SUPPORT 1.3160/1.3130 SUGGEST : Open Sell Range 1.3120-1.3110 Limit 1.3070 Stop 1.3140 Open Buy Range 1.3140-1.3150 Limit 1.3200 Stop 1.3120
USD / CHF POWER Bearish STRENGTH 30% START POWER 15-02-2007 POINT RUNNING +134 PRICE DIRECTION Short RESIST/SUPPORT 1.2390/1.2360 SUGGEST : Open Sell Range 1.2360-1.2350 Limit 1.2300 Stop 1.2380 Open Buy Range 1.2390-1.2400 Limit 1.2450 Stop 1.2370	USD / JPY POWER Bearish STRENGTH 20% START POWER 14-02-2007 POINT RUNNING +116 PRICE DIRECTION Long RESIST/SUPPORT 120.40/120.10 SUGGEST : Open Sell Range 120.40-120.30 Limit 119.90 Stop 120.60 Open Buy Range 120.60-120.70 Limit 120.40 Stop 121.10

FOREX INFO TODAY #3

combined from many sources

FX Order Book

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Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

GBP / USD POWER Bearish STRENGTH 30% START POWER 08-02-2007 POINT RUNNING +147 PRICE DIRECTION Long RESIST/SUPPORT 1.9500/1.9460 SUGGEST : Open Sell Range Limit Stop Open Buy Range 1.9500-1.9480 Limit 1.9550 Stop 1.9460	EUR / USD POWER Bullish STRENGTH 60% START POWER 06-02-2007 POINT RUNNING +79 PRICE DIRECTION Long RESIST/SUPPORT 1.3130/1.3090 SUGGEST : Open Sell Range Limit Stop Open Buy Range 1.3130-1.3120 Limit 1.3170 Stop 1.3090
USD / CHF POWER Bearish STRENGTH 20% START POWER 15-02-2007 POINT RUNNING +144 PRICE DIRECTION Short RESIST/SUPPORT 1.2380/1.2350 SUGGEST : Open Sell Range 1.2360-1.2370 Limit 1.2300 Stop 1.2380 Open Buy Range Limit Stop

FOREX INFO TODAY #2

	GBP / USD POWER Bearish STRENGTH 10% START POWER 08-02-2007 POINT RUNNING +167 PRICE DIRECTION Short RESIST/SUPPORT 1.9540/1.9480 SUGGEST : Open Sell Range Limit Stop Open Buy Range Limit Stop	EUR / USD POWER Bullish STRENGTH 30% START POWER 06-02-2007 POINT RUNNING +79 PRICE DIRECTION Short RESIST/SUPPORT 1.3020/1.3000 SUGGEST : Open Sell Range Limit Stop Open Buy Range Limit Stop
	USD / CHF POWER Bullish STRENGTH 20% START POWER 06-02-2007 POINT RUNNING +117 PRICE DIRECTION Long RESIST/SUPPORT 1.2510/1.2470 SUGGEST : Open Sell Range Limit Stop Open Buy Range Limit Stop	USD / JPY POWER Bullish STRENGTH 70% START POWER 07-02-2007 POINT RUNNING +48 PRICE DIRECTION Long RESIST/SUPPORT 122.00/121.70 SUGGEST : Open Sell Range Limit Stop Open Buy Range Limit Stop

Forex Today #1

Education

15 news that most influential
towards the movement forex market

GDP
GPD is the value of all final goods and services produced in the US. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the principal indicator of economic performance.

Trade Balance
A measure of trade between US and the rest of the world. In its simplest form the difference between exports and imports.

Non-Farm Payrolls
A component of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Report which is the single most important report on economic activity.

CPI
This index measures the change in prices for a fixed basket of goods and services, which is purchased by consumers.

LEI
A composite of economic variables designed to signal turning points in the economy. As a rule of tumb, three declines in a row are interpreted as signaling a recession (with an average lead time of about 12 months).

ISM Manufacturing
Approximately 300 companies are asked to comment on the relative growth of five categories relating to the manufacturing sector. Results over 50 are bullish, whereas results under 50 are bearish.

ISM Non-Manufacturing
Growth survey for non-manufacturing sectors.

Industrial Production
Primarily a gauge for manufacturing activity, measures the total output of all factories, mines, and utulities. This indicator is extremely useful for predicting shifts in overall economic cycles, and can be used to gauge changes in GDP.

Durable Goods
This indicator measures the total number of manufacturers' orders for durable goods, which are defined as goods with a foreseeable lifespan of three years or more. It acts as a gauge for manufacturing activity.

Empire State Manufacturing
Praticipants from a variety of industries within New York state are asked to evaluate current and upcoming conditions.

Philly Fed
A survey of manufacturing in the Philadelphia Research Bank district. An especially important component is he current general activity index.

Existing Home Sales
A private report on sales of previously owned single-family homes. Along with new home sales as an economic indicator.

TIC Report
Treasury International Capital (TIC) report which shows the monthly data on net foreign purchases of US securities.

Personal Confidence
Consumption consist of purchases of goods and sevices; it accounts for two-thirds of GDP.

U. Mich. Con. Confidence
This survey asks consumers to evaluate the overall business climate as it pertains to their situation. There is a direct correlation between consumer sentiment and the growth of consumer spending; the later is especially important because it makes up two-thirds of GDP.

Forex Strategy

GBP / USD POWER Bullish STRENGTH 40% START POWER 31-01-2007 POINT RUNNING -21 PRICE DIRECTION - RESIST/SUPPORT -	EUR / USD POWER Bullish STRENGTH 40% START POWER 31-01-2007 POINT RUNNING +18 PRICE DIRECTION - RESIST/SUPPORT -
USD / CHF POWER Bearish STRENGTH 50% START POWER 31-01-2007 POINT RUNNING +13 PRICE DIRECTION - RESIST/SUPPORT -	USD / JPY POWER Bearish STRENGTH 40% START POWER 31-01-2007 POINT RUNNING +24 PRICE DIRECTION - RESIST/SUPPORT -